Press release
Aircraft manufacturers need to dramatically increase investments in zero emission planes
UN agreement means that all new aircraft delivered after 2035 will need to be net-zero over their entire lifetime
(July 18th, 2024) Washington, D.C. – To achieve the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) goals of net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050, all new aircraft delivered after about 2035 will need to emit zero net CO2 emissions throughout their operational lifetimes, according to a new report from the International Council on Clean Transportation.
The report, Lifetime emissions from aircraft under a net-zero carbon budget, assesses whether current manufacturer delivery projections are consistent with the net-zero carbon target by 2050 set by airline and aircraft manufacturers. It also explores how aircraft production, sales, and usage cycles are linked to emissions.
Aircraft already in-service in 2023 are expected to emit 9 billion tonnes (Gt) of CO2 before being retired, or about 50% of a net-zero carbon budget. Projected lifetime emissions from new aircraft deliveries will consume the remainder of a net-zero carbon budget by between 2032 and 2037, depending on how quickly sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blends and fuel-efficient technologies are adopted.
“A typical aircraft is in service for about 25 years,” says Supraja Kumar, lead author of the study. “So, if airlines are going to be net-zero by 2050, we need planes that burn zero fossil fuels throughout their lifetimes starting around 2035.”
While SAF blends and fuel efficiency can substantially cut emissions, additional action will be needed from aircraft manufacturers to transition away from fossil fuels by the mid-2030s. The study estimates that there will be a market for at least 10,000 new aircraft powered by hydrogen, electricity, or 100% SAFs through 2042.
“Net-zero aviation means that there will be a robust market for zero-emission planes,” says Dan Rutherford, ICCT’s Senior Director of Research. “It’s high time for manufacturers develop new aircraft that don’t need fossil fuels.”
To reach the net-zero CO2 goal, aircraft manufacturers will need to dramatically increase their investments in lower emitting aircraft. Manufacturers can 1) ensure that all new aircraft can burn 100% SAF, not just SAF blends, starting in 2030, 2) accelerate efforts to develop zero emission planes, especially those powered by hydrogen, by 2035 and 3) establish stringent targets for “value-chain emissions” (those released during the lifetime of a product’s use by its customers) requiring that the aircraft they deliver will emit fewer GHGs throughout their lifetimes.
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Media Contact
Jessica Peyton, Associate Communications Specialist, ICCT
communications@theicct.org
Publication details
Title: Lifetime emissions from aircraft under a net-zero carbon budget
Authors: Supraja N. Kumar, Dan Rutherford
URL: http://theicct.org/publication/lifetime-emissions-from-aircraft-under-a-net-zero-carbon-budget-jul24
About the International Council on Clean Transportation
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.
Find us at:
www.theicct.org
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