Climate and air quality benefits from accelerating electrification for Guangdong’s on-road transportation

Guangdong has been one of China’s leading markets for new energy vehicles (NEVs), particularly zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). This report demonstrates that a faster electrification of Guangdong’s on-road transportation is essential for Guangdong to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and achieve its environmental targets by 2035.

The study conducts an emission inventory study of Guangdong’s on-road transportation considering current announced or proposed ZEV sales targets in China and Guangdong, and accelerated electrification which is 90% ZEV share in all new sales in 2035. Based on the emission inventory results, an air quality study is followed to estimate the benefits on improving NO₂, PM_2.5 and ozone pollution in Guangdong province.

Under an accelerated electrification scenario, Guangdong could see a 31% reduction in well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Additionally, accelerated electrification of on-road vehicles could bring as much as 10 μg/m³ NO₂ reductions, 3 μg/m³ PM_2.5 reductions and 5 μg/m³ ozone reductions across Guangdong province.

Our study also provides a package of policy recommendations for Guangdong to promote their on-road electrification, including setting long-term zero-emission vehicle sales targets like 90% by 2025, including specific targets for heavy-duty fleets by use case, leveraging the resources of multiple government agencies to explore effective incentive policies like zero-emission zones, infrastructures development, etc.