Sales and market share

This spotlight presents an overview of the 2023 market for new zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (ZE-HDVs) in China, covering buses, heavy and medium rigid trucks, and tractor-trailers above 3.5 metric tons.

In 2023, total sales of ZE-HDVs decreased by 2% to 110,400 units, down from 113,000 units in 2022. New sales of ZE buses contracted, while those of ZE trucks increased. Meanwhile, the overall HDV market in China grew by 15% in 2023 compared with sales in 2022. The resulting market share of new ZE-HDVs in 2023 was 8%, compared with 9% in 2022. Despite this slight decrease for HDVs, the overall sales share of zero-emission commercial vehicles, including light-commercial vehicles, continued to increase.

Figure 1. Sales of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles in China from 2011 to 2023

The ZE market share varied across HDV segments. Buses remained the segment with the highest ZE penetration, at 17%; city buses accounted for 83% of ZE buses, while coaches comprised the remaining 17%. Dump trucks followed with a 10% ZE market share. Compared with 2022, tractor-trailers experienced the largest growth in ZE sales at 42%, followed by utility vehicles at 41%. Among ZE utility vehicles, sanitation vehicles and refrigerated trucks had the highest EV market shares with 25% and 11%, respectively.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 2. Zero-emission sales share of heavy-duty vehicles by segment, 2023

Notes: Percentages under the green circles refer to the market share of ZE-HDVs within each segment and correspond to the secondary axis. Percentage values below the columns refer to each segment’s share of total HDVs sold in 2023.

In 2023, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), swap-capable BEVs, and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) comprised 80%, 14%, and 6% of new ZE-HDV sales, respectively. Sales of swap-capable BEVs and FCEVs reached 15,200 and 7,200 units, respectively— increases of 27% and 57% from 2022. BEVs remained the primary technology pathway for buses, rigid trucks, and utility vehicles, and swap-capable BEVs remained the leading technology for dump trucks and tractor-trailers.

The largest deployments of swap-capable BEVs and FCEVs were in the tractor-trailer segment, driven by increased adoption of these technologies for longer distance travel and a 2020 performance rating policy requiring low-emission transportation for 80% of bulk materials in select regions for pollution control (see “Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions”). Approximately 92% of FCEV tractor-trailers and 64% of swap-capable BEV tractor-trailers were sold in regions covered by this provision. The ZE-HDV utility segment saw growing shares of swap-capable BEVs (10% of ZE utility vehicle sales, from 7% in 2022) and FCEVs (9%, from 8%). Concrete mixer trucks led among swap-capable BEVs in the utility segment, while refrigerated and insulated trucks led among utility FCEVs.

Figure 3. Sales by zero-emission technology, 2023

Note: Values are rounded to the nearest hundred.

Manufacturers

In the ZE bus and truck markets, the top ten manufacturers accounted for 82% and 72% of total sales, respectively. Among bus manufacturers, King Long (20% of total ZE bus sales) and Yutong (17%) remained the leaders by a wide margin. King Long also led in fuel cell electric bus sales, followed by Zhongtong. In the ZE truck segment, Geely led in overall sales, followed by Dongfeng and Foton. While most leading ZE truck manufacturers adopted a combination of technologies, Geely’s sales were nearly all BEVs. Yutong led in FCEV sales, while XCMG led in swap-capable BEV sales.

Figure 4. Top ten zero-emission bus and truck manufacturers, 2023

Note: Data labels show market share of each manufacturer among total sales in each vehicle segment.

Cities

In 2023, 39% of battery electric bus sales and 53% of battery electric truck sales were concentrated in the top ten cities, by sales, for each segment. Shenzhen, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing ranked among the top ten cities in terms of sales in both vehicle categories. Cities in China have deployed various strategies to accelerate zero-emission truck uptake. For instance, since 2021, Tangshan—which has major ports and is a hub for the iron and steel industries—has been a pilot city in the national program for developing swap-capable trucks. Chengdu has promoted the adoption of ZE engineering and dump trucks through such means as preferential road access. Six of the top 10 cities for ZE bus and truck sales are in regions subject to the pollution control measures noted above.

Figure 5. Top ten cities in sales of battery electric buses and trucks, 2023.

Note: Data labels show the market share of each city in national sales of battery electric buses (left) and trucks (right). There were no swap-capable battery electric bus sales in 2023.

The ten cities with the highest fuel-cell electric bus and truck sales in 2023 accounted for 75% and 68% of each market, respectively. In 2020, the national government launched a pilot program for the demonstration of FCEVs in cities; five city clusters—Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei, and Henan—have since been selected for the initiative. In 2023, six of the top 10 cities for fuel-cell electric bus sales and eight of the top 10 cities for fuel-cell electric truck sales were part of these FCEV pilot clusters. Among non-pilot cities, Jining and Jinan, the second- and third-largest fuel-cell electric bus markets, are both in Shandong Province, which has been a demonstration province for research and application of hydrogen since 2021. Jinan is also home to the headquarters of CNHTC (also known as Sinotruk), a major HDV and ZE-HDV manufacturer. The top four cities for fuel-cell electric truck sales remained the same as in 2022.

Figure 6. Top ten cities in sales of fuel-cell electric buses and trucks, 2023

Note: Data labels show the market share of each city in national sales of fuel-cell electric buses (left) and trucks (right).

Battery technology and performance metrics

Key metrics

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) remained the dominant battery chemistry in the ZE-HDV industry in 2023, representing 99.9% of battery capacity in new ZE-HDV sales, a slight increase from 99.4% in 2022. The remaining 0.1% comprised lithium-ion manganese oxide (LMO) and lithium titanate oxide (LTO) batteries produced by smaller battery suppliers.

The battery supplier market continued to consolidate in 2023. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL)’s market share grew from 79% in 2022 to 87% in 2023. Correspondingly, the market share of smaller suppliers decreased. Vehicle manufacturers such as Yutong and XCMG predominantly sourced from one battery supplier, while others such as CNHTC and Dongfeng sourced from a variety of suppliers.

Figure 7. Zero-emission HDV battery chemistry, battery supplier, and manufacturer sourcing of batteries in 2023

Notes: Width of links is proportional to each battery technology’s relative share of battery capacity in new ZE-HDVs sold in 2023. Figure made using data from top vehicle models by 2023 sales, which accounted for over 75% of new vehicle sales in 2023.

The sales-weighted average battery capacity of new ZE-HDVs was 192 kWh; tractor-trailers had the largest average capacity (335 kWh) and rigid trucks the smallest (88 kWh). Meanwhile, due to their high energy consumption, tractor-trailers had the shortest range (253 km) while buses had the longest (484 km). The sales-weighted average battery capacity and range of buses were nearly unchanged from 2022, while all other segments saw an increase in both in 2023. Specific energy varied modestly by segment, ranging from 148 Wh/kg for rigid trucks to 158 Wh/kg for dump trucks, with a sales-weighted average of 153 Wh/kg across all vehicle categories. Utility vehicles saw a slight increase in energy consumption compared to 2022; little year-on-year change in energy consumption was observed in other segments.

Figure 8. Sales-weighted average type-approved battery capacity, range, specific energy, and energy consumption by segment, 2023

Notes: Reference lines and corresponding data labels show the sales-weighted average for all ZE-HDVs. A sales-weighted average reference line is not shown for energy consumption, which is largely determined by vehicle weight. Values are rounded to two significant digits for energy consumption and three for all other metrics.

Battery swapping technology

Swap-capable BEVs reached a 14% penetration rate in new ZE-HDV sales in 2023. As of June 2023, there were about 400 battery swapping stations for trucks in China.

Figure 9. Monthly zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle- sales by technology, 2023

Notes: White data labels indicate average monthly swap-capable HDV market shares. The grey reference line and corresponding data label indicate average annual swap-capable vehicle market share.

Across all segments, swap-capable BEVs displayed lower ranges and higher per-kilometer energy consumption than their non-swap-capable BEV counterparts. Moreover, with the exception of utility vehicles, BEVs had higher battery capacity than swap-capable BEVs across all vehicle categories. These differences are in part due to the different use cases for the two technologies. Concrete mixers and garbage trucks—heavy vehicles that require large batteries and high energy consumption—accounted for almost 95% of new swap-capable utility vehicles in 2023. Only about 22% of new battery electric utility vehicles were used for purposes that consume more energy than either of these two applications.

Swap-capable trucks usually have lower specific energy than their BEV counterparts. This can be attributed to the energy penalty associated with the weight of the frame surrounding the battery, which is relatively higher for smaller, swap-capable batteries. The slightly higher specific energy for swap-capable BEVs in segments other than rigid trucks reflects the use of BEVs in a greater range of applications requiring comparatively lower specific energy than swap-capable BEVs.

Figure 10. Comparison of sales-weighted average battery capacity, nominal range, specific energy, and energy consumption of battery electric and swap-capable heavy-duty vehicles in 2023

Note: Data labels show percent difference compared to BEVs.

The post Race to zero: Zero-emission bus and truck market in China in 2023 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The study conducts an emission inventory study of Guangdong’s on-road transportation considering current announced or proposed ZEV sales targets in China and Guangdong, and accelerated electrification which is 90% ZEV share in all new sales in 2035. Based on the emission inventory results, an air quality study is followed to estimate the benefits on improving NO₂, PM_2.5 and ozone pollution in Guangdong province.

Under an accelerated electrification scenario, Guangdong could see a 31% reduction in well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Additionally, accelerated electrification of on-road vehicles could bring as much as 10 μg/m³ NO₂ reductions, 3 μg/m³ PM_2.5 reductions and 5 μg/m³ ozone reductions across Guangdong province.

Our study also provides a package of policy recommendations for Guangdong to promote their on-road electrification, including setting long-term zero-emission vehicle sales targets like 90% by 2025, including specific targets for heavy-duty fleets by use case, leveraging the resources of multiple government agencies to explore effective incentive policies like zero-emission zones, infrastructures development, etc.

The post Climate and air quality benefits from accelerating electrification for Guangdong’s on-road transportation appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

This study investigates the feasibility of establishing GSCs for China’s coastal shipping. Researchers assess whether the ships could be powered by renewable hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, or batteries without the need to refuel en route. Three routes were identified as potential first mover candidates for GSCs. Finally, to understand the cost of enabling these routes, researchers analyzed demand and cost of renewable marine fuels for the first zero-emission vessels to be deployed on these routes (Table ES).

Figure. Traffic patterns for the three hypothetical zero-emission vessels on the GSC routes

Key findings:

• The technological feasibility of applying renewable marine fuels on China’s coastal shipping routes is high. The three first mover GSC routes analyzed could be served by ships running on renewable hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol without a need to refuel en route. Battery electric technology could be used for certain ships on shorter regional routes but currently has the lowest feasibility.   
• To enable the first ZEVs on these routes, 6,000 tonnes of ammonia or methanol, or 900 tonnes of renewable hydrogen need to be sourced. This would likely result in the need to supply 44-60 GWh of renewable electricity by 2030.  
• Policy guidelines are crucial for deploying more ZEVs in these corridors and achieving a meaningful reduction in greenhouse gases. The estimated cost of renewable hydrogen at the pump is $7.60/kg by 2030, significantly higher than conventional marine fuels. Reducing costs by 32% by 2050 will require substantial policy support to make GSCs viable on a larger scale.  

Table. Hypothetical activity for one zero-emission vessel on each GSC route, based on 2021 activity data

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In terms of past experience, Ruoqi has worked for a think tank focusing on international issues and an operational group in a transnational internet company. Recently, Ruoqi completed a one-year exchange program at Keele University in the UK, with a focus on public policy and environmental politics.

Outside of work, Ruoqi is a volleyball player on the university team. Having played for both the BFSU team and the Keele team, Ruoqi primarily plays as an outside hitter, the left wing in the front court, and occasionally as a libero.

The post Ruoqi Zhou appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

本文对2019至2022年期间陕西省的重型零排放货车市场以及榆林市阳伙盘煤矿中零排放货车的使用情况进行了评估。研究基于对零排放货车实际应用场景运行状况和性能的调研。评估了纯电牵引车的总拥有成本和经济性。

此外，本研究骇对换电重卡的不同购买模式进行了比较，尤其是使用“租电模式”(BaaS) 的换电重卡在经济性上的表现。相对于直接购买整车，“租电模式”为买方提供了经济灵活性，可以将大部分的前置资本支出后置到使用过程中。

我们的研究展示了零排放重卡在煤炭运输的应用场景中的性能和效益，以及创新的购买模式的优势。同时，研究也发现了零排放重卡进一步发展面临的一些挑战，例如“亏吨”现象。决策方还需要思考更加灵活的政策激励进一步推动零排放重卡的实际应用。

The post 零排放货车实际应用案例：中国陕西省榆林市的煤炭运输货车 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The post How it works: Battery swapping for commercial vehicle fleets in China appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Speakers

Peter Mock

Europe Managing Director / Regional Lead, ICCT

Zifei Yang

Passenger Vehicle Program Lead, ICCT

The post Fair play? Europe and China competition in the electric car market appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

该评级涵盖了中国、欧盟、印度、日本、韩国和美国六大关键汽车市场，涉及的21家车企总销量占据这些市场总销量的91%，并占据全球市场的75%。通过这一综合评级报告，ICCT为全球汽车行业提供了一个清晰的转型考量维度，帮助各方更好地理解行业趋势，并作出明智的战略决策。在评估的10项指标中，较之去年多数企业在6个指标上均有所提升，包括零排放车等效销量、能源消耗、续航里程、零排放车目标、零排放车投资、以及高管薪酬。 

2023全球汽车制造企业评级分数汇总（ 表示与 2022 年相比分数有所提高； 表示与 2022 年相比分数有所下降）。绿色标记为“领先企业”（66.7–100），黄色标记为“正常转型企业”（33.4-66.6），红色标记为“转型滞后企业”（0-33.3）

特斯拉与比亚迪连续两年领跑全球车企零排放转型 

在全球车企竞相迈向零排放未来的赛道上，特斯拉与比亚迪再次展现了其卓越的领导力，双双蝉联行业领先地位的前两名，与2022年保持一致。这两家车企已全面实现电动汽车的生产。特斯拉在多个关键指标上均取得了最高评分，包括充电速度、续驶里程、电池回收/再利用、发展目标、以及投资等维度。值得一提的是，在零排放汽车投资方面，特斯拉的投资力度大幅领先其他竞争对手。尽管特斯拉在电动汽车技术上取得了显著成就，在车型多样性上仍有进一步拓展的空间。

比亚迪作为另一家领跑者，其在零排放汽车领域的表现同样备受瞩目。比亚迪在车型覆盖上的评分高于其他所有非中国车企。想要保持全球领先地位，比亚迪尚需要将其目前的插电式混合动力汽车产品（占其销量份额48%）转型为纯电动汽车，同时努力提升其纯电动汽车产品的性能。

全球车企零排放转型进度各异，梅赛德斯-奔驰、上汽集团及长安汽车提升显著 

梅赛德斯-奔驰在脱碳供应链方面取得了显著进步，不仅增加了可再生能源的使用，还加强了电池回收再利用的部署。长安汽车宣布了新的电池回收和再利用计划。上汽集团则在零排放车辆等效销售份额方面在参评车企中涨幅最大。今年，奇瑞汽车因其大幅增长的汽车销量被纳入了评级。包括上汽、吉利、长安、长城、奇瑞在内的五家中国车企被评为正常转型企业之列。

日本车企连续两年转型滞后，印度车企未来有望进入正常转型之列 

在2023年度的全球车企转型评级中，日本和印度汽车制造企业依然整体滞后，但在其中，印度的塔塔汽车却展现出了强劲的发展势头。作为印度最大的汽车制造商之一，塔塔汽车在零排放汽车领域设定了更高的销售目标，并显著加大了在这一领域的投资力度，其产品技术水平也随之提升，在此发展态势下，塔塔汽车或将在未来的评级中超越一些目前处于“正常转型”梯队的企业，成为印度车企电动化转型的领军者。

尽管铃木汽车在2022年的评级中表现不佳，获得0分，但该公司已经开始逐步推进零排放汽车发展战略，展现了一定的转型意愿。然而，日本的一些传统汽车巨头如丰田、本田、日产和马自达的零排放汽车领等效销售占比仍然徘徊在1%-5%之间。这些企业需要进一步丰富零排放汽车的产品供应，并加大相关投资力度，以跟上全球汽车产业转型的步伐。 

The post 2023全球车企电动化转型评级：特斯拉、比亚迪蝉联前二 日系车仍全面落后  appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

This study reviewed the zero-emission trucks (ZETs) market development and real-world performance, specifically heavy-duty battery electric and fuel-cell electric trucks, in Yulin city, Shaanxi province, China. The analysis examines the total cost of ownership (TCO) and economic benefits of using battery electric tractor trailers in coal freight based on empirical data on real-world operations, compared with diesel tractor-trailers.

The study also includes a comparison between different business models for battery swapping trucks, especially those utilizing battery-as-a-service (BaaS) models. Compared with buying the whole electric trucks, this potentially attractive business model provides flexibility to buyers as it turns a large part of capital expenditure into an operational expense.

Our findings suggest that while zero-emission trucks show promise in terms of operational and economic performance, challenges like lower payload capacity remain. Innovative financing models and policy incentives for ZETs may further increase their attractiveness to fleet operators.

The post Real-world use cases for zero-emission trucks: Coal freight trucks in Yulin city, Shaanxi province appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The paper’s methodology involves projecting emissions for multiple sectors through 2035 and then calculating transportation emissions under both a Business-As-Usual scenario and an Accelerated Electrification scenario. Air quality modeling shows that faster adoption of NEVs, particularly for buses and heavy-duty vehicles, would lead to significant reductions in pollutants.  By 2035, Accelerated Electrification could reduce transportation-related concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) by 67%, fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) by 42%, and ozone by 44% compared to the Business-As-Usual scenario.

The findings underscore the benefits of accelerating the electrification of Hainan’s coaches and trucks will help improve ambient air quality, especially for ozone, even as the province experiences higher levels of socioeconomic activity and growth in the number of vehicles.

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